United States: Taylor Swift, an essential asset for the 2024 presidential election? (III)

(this is a follow up of a previous post)

And according to a survey published in early December by a Harvard institute, the number of young people surveyed “definitely” planning to vote for the next presidential election fell to 49%, compared to 57% in the fall of 2019.

"Mobilize"

The participation rate in general, and that of young people in particular, will be one of the keys to the next presidential election.

And for Matthew Harris, it is surely in this area that Taylor Swift could have the most impact.

“I don’t think people are like, ‘Oh! Taylor Swift supports Joe Biden, so I’m going to vote for him,’” he explains. The most important will be “his ability to mobilize people, to encourage them to register to vote”, because “these are people who are already predisposed to vote for Joe Biden”.

Especially since the "Swifties", the name given to the singer's fans, live mainly in residential suburbs, adds the political scientist, areas which "tip the American political balance".

Taylor Swift published a message on Instagram in September inviting her 272 million subscribers to use the Vote.org platform to register to vote.

Result? The organization recorded more than 35,000 new registrations that day, a jump of 23% compared to the same day a year earlier, and further proof of the singer's influence.

The superstar could also encourage mobilization through his positions, particularly on abortion.

When the Supreme Court annulled the constitutional guarantee of the right to abortion in 2022, the artist said she was "terrified" that women's right to control their own bodies would be taken away from them, a fight that is close to Kamala Harris, Joe Biden's vice-president.

But for the latter to gain the singer's support, perhaps the president would no longer have to confuse her with Britney Spears, as he did in November...

Can Taylor Swift have an impact on the US Presidential Elections?(II)

 (the continuation of the post from here)

2. Young people, the nerve of the electoral war

Last September, Taylor Swift repeated the feat by once again calling on her audience to register to vote. This time, more than 35,000 Americans registered in the space of one day on Vote.org. Above all, the platform observed a 115% jump in registrations of 18-year-old voters compared to the previous year. And it is precisely with this demographic that the interpreter of Style perhaps has a role to play.

As USA Today noted a few months ago, the youth vote is synonymous with concern across the Atlantic: only 48% of those aged 18-29 went to the polls during the 2020 presidential election, compared to 73% of those aged 65- 74 years old.

“The younger generation is starting to realize that what they care about is intrinsically linked to turnout,” said Andrea Hailey, CEO of Vote.org. “When someone generates 30,000 registrations at once, there can be an impact, absolutely.”

For Thierry Arnaud, political columnist for BFMTV, "this election will be played out in a small handful of states, as usual. These are what we call swing states, where the results are close (...) each time, it comes down to a few tens of thousands of votes; mobilization will be the key, especially among young people. Traditionally, they vote less than others but when they do, they mostly vote Democratic. It is in this I feel like Taylor Swift will make them lean, and that's why her role could be decisive."

3. 18% of voters say they are ready to follow her

And in fact, young people seem particularly inclined to follow Taylor Swift's voting instructions. This is what a Redfield & Wilton Strategies survey conducted for Newsweek revealed last January.

Among those under 35, about three in ten Americans say they are more likely to vote for a candidate supported by the singer. Out of the overall population, 18% of American voters say they are more likely or much more likely to do the same.

This last figure must be put into perspective; because conversely, 17% of voters surveyed say they are less likely to vote for a candidate supported by the singer, who is as popular as she is divisive

(to be continued)